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Why I'm all in on BNB and maybe not crazy
You may remember my post a few weeks back: Yes, You Should Buy Some BNB. At that time, BNB had just started holding above 0.0019-20 BTC, a level it failed to hold three times. The timing was not the primary reason for investing, but it made the decision urgent. The price subsequently rose to roughly 0.0026 BTC and now appears to be settling into a floor around 0.0020-21. They say resistance becomes support, ceilings become floors. Historically for BNB, the downtrend normally ends before hitting the former ceilings. If there was ever a time to of all in, I think now is it… so I did. Figured this would be a good time to dive a bit deeper on why I’m so ultra bullish on BNB. Charisma - Binance feels deeply charismatic to me. It’s a word I didn’t think of in investing until this Peter Thiel interview. Binance strikes me as especially charismatic. Investors largely love Binance as a product and as a company. A lot of this charisma comes from the trust people have in Binance. CZ recently spoke about how Binance now has a “2-hour rule” which is where they update the community every two hours. You may not have known about this exact rule, but you probably have felt it and you certainly have read CZ now-famous “funds are safe.” This expression is so pervasive that you see people racing to comment with it. Bizonaci made this masterpiece which introduced the spelling “safu,” or as CZ recently said Binance is the “safust.” I mean shit, look how calm things were with BNB after after an unexpected SYStem wide freeze. The market stayed calm and BNB is the largest exchange… Let me repeat, Binance—the world’s largest exchange of trustless assets—had to emergency halt trading and the entire market is NBD… The morning after, Jackson Palmer tweeted this sentiment summary, Sherman Lee posted this beautiful piece in Forbes, and Binance announced S.A.F.U. as an official part of their commitment to protect investors. Antifragile - Antifragile is a concept Nassim Taleb coined to describe things that get stronger with stress. Binance seems to strengthen with bad news. When China last banned exchanges, Binance up and moved to Malta and the price soared. Now Binance is in three countries/jurisdictions and probably entering more. These emerging crypto hubs are competing for epic tax revenues, especially relative to their size. If the EU were to push Malta for more regulation, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Malta leave the EU. After all, is Malta better off with Binance, EOS, et al or with the EU? The latter may still be true but it’s increasingly less clear cut. This puts it in a position of incredible strength when it comes to negotiation, staying automomous, and gaining the government cooperation to build financial bridges across the world. In short, I see Binance as having a real shot as delivering on it’s mission of financial freedom. Exchange the world. Adoption - BNB is rapidly gaining adoption. In the past few months, we’ve seen small exchanges list BNB. In the last week, this pace has increased dramatically as Bitmex and Metamask have joined the BNB party. YouTubers and the Twitter sphere seem to be talking about BNB more frequently. The $1B impact fund is to be denominated in BNB and a team member noted in the recent Binance Labs AMA that partners will be able to accept payments in BNB. New coins have already been paying Binance humungo checks to gain access to Binance’s user base; if Binance pulls of Binance Chain DEX (powered by BNB), they’re going to compete at the ERC20 level for the ICO market, at least to some extent. It’s still unclear what Binance Chain will look like, but the support volume is definitely more compelling than other DEXes would be launching with. ICOs numbers are holding strong and Binance continues to be the most attractive place to list. Moreover, with the recent investment ChiliZ, founded by Alexander Dreyfus (founder of e-gaming companies), Binance has demonstrated an interest in the broader speculation market, which basically is crypto right now… and Binance hasn’t even introduced options/futures… Team - The Binance team seems truly world class to me. A good chunk of my last post was about the team (and CZ’s fly-af shorts), but one thing I did not say last time was the value of CZ’s cult-leadership. Don’t get me wrong, I consider this a double edged sword much like ETH and nearly every coin but BTC has. But on the positive edge, this gives Binance an incredible edge when it comes to execution, recruiting, and a ultimately achieving their vision. You can feel the team support for CZ; you can see it in this video and in Binance’s recent staff re-tweet. I also think not enough of my last post was about the community manager(s) who I feel are killing it compared to other subreddit mods. Market - IMO the market will mostly bounce around/move sideways for some time and Binance will make money either way. There may be big moves up but I expect them to be met with significant resistance. Technical analysis is a major driver of price action in crypto specifically because most coins/token have no underlying value (i.e. it is largely emotional responses). As such, alts will continue to have trading value even if they lose a lot of expectation-based value. After all, look how many alts recently went up 20-30%. Get rich quick sentiment has not dried up nearly to the degree some people say. Maybe I’m following the wrong people, but I haven’t seen anyone talk about Bitcoin being “dead”—only people talking about people talking about it being dead. Do you really think Tron and IOTA will die any day now? No, you don’t. The FOMO and FUD are real and the firepowereserve capital many alts have is massive. If a mostly sideways market plays out, then profit chasing will increasingly turn to algo trading, which Binance is well positioned for. In a recent interview, CZ mentioned Binance is planning to expand it’s capacity by 100-1,000x to prepare for a massive increase in usage, and he said it before the algo traders temporarily broke Binance’s API… Okay, but let’s say it’s not like this, let’s say there’s a major breakdown in alts much sooner (maybe everyone realizes Lightning makes a XRP useless). In this case, I expect Convert-to-BNB to do quite well given how many alts are on Binance (especially those who paid to show up because they were so shitty they couldn’t get the crowd to vote for them). Moreover, if you’re losing your life savings and BNB continues to grow, many investors are going to try to an dig themselves out of a hole by selling for BNB. Either way, BNB probably has a bright future. Q3 - Right now, BNB is performing poorly because of the sell the news paradigm crypto seems to operate under. But at about this time last quarter BNB was at peak BTC and ETH value. Compared to last quarter, we’re two weeks ahead, which would make this bottom somewhere between yesterday and next weekend. The growth during the last quarter was also sharper than this quarter, suggesting less to fall, and I suspect the hype train is going to be larger this cycle as rumors of the DEX become more imminent. There’s also extra worry this quarter because the market assumes Binance’s profit will be lower and the second year discount will be lowered (50% BNB discount —> 25% off with BNB discount). I sense that these fears are already priced in. For starters, Binance hasn’t shot up directly after the great quarterly news; why would it shoot down on bad news, especially if it is expected? Regarding the discount, 25% is still better than 0% off, so people should keep using it (especially if the BNB they’re holding is appreciating), and for the next year, Binance should be making 50% more profit (before they made 0.05%, now they will make 0.075% profit). I believe the sentiment on this concern is oversold when the math appears way better to me. Concerns - With all this in mind, I do still have a few concerns. For instance, what do Binance founders/team plan to do with their 100M coins as the BNB supply approaches 100M supply? Will they sell a-la Charlie Lee or will their sell-off be more pre-meditated a la Ripple’s 55mo escrow release? In theory as the price of BNB rises, it will take longer for the supply to get to 100M so this question could be a ways off, but I still would prefer clarity over this (even if it relies on trust). There’s some sentiment concern that the 1/5 vesting coming up will cause a large sell off. I assume inside folk see world-dominating growth ahead given the recent all-star Binance Labs hires, but still would be nice to understand this risk better. Finally, perhaps my largest concern is will Binance have an EOS moment with the freezing functionality laid out in the DEX competition requirements? I can certainly envision a decentralized use and Binance has demonstrated doing the right thing when they take emergency action, but I want to share the concern nevertheless. Deflationary - One concern I do not have with with BNB but recognize others do is about the utility of BNB after the discount goes to 0. Binance says BNB will be used as gas in the eventual Binance Chain DEX. This gives it utility, and unlike other blockchains, Binance already has usage demand. So, if you think any altcoin has value, then BNB—at the DEX stage and without a discount—has value. Beyond dominating trading utility (a huge industry use case), BNB has a decent store of value argument (the other huge industry use case). Unlike most coins/token have unreleased supply for inflation, fees, etc., BNB supply is already fully diluted. While BTC expands its supply for some time to come, BNB will be lowering its supply through the burn. Sure, people lose BTC which is a deflationary force, but I suspect this will become less common as wallet tech improves and the industry matures. To be clear, I don’t think BNB and BTC are otherwise comparable and I don’t think BNB (or any coin/token) will replace BTC. But, BTC has demonstrated that investors want stores of value, so whether your thesis is high usage will appreciate or store of value will appreciate, BNB checks both boxes.
[AMA SUMMARY] Coin98 AMA #29 Ferrum Network with Ian Friend - COO At Ferrum Network
https://preview.redd.it/cjzluk91i6h31.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=12d87043df93ed0c81317d2857f245627f1efdf4 Coin98, a Facebook Group, recently did an AMA with Ian Friend, COO of Ferrum Network. Grace Pham: Before we start the AMA could you please introduce a little bit about yourself as well as a quick introduction about FRM for anyone who hasn't heard about FRM yet? Ian Friend: Yes of course. I am the Co-Founder and COO of Ferrum Network. Prior to joining Ferrum I was a lawyer in New York City where I founded my law firm's blockchain practice team. I then met Naiem Yeganeh, PhD and we founded Ferrum. Q: Could you briefly describe what is FRM in 3-5 sentences? Ian Friend: Ferrum is really the combination of two interconnected components. First, is the high-speed interoperability network that can connect to any blockchain and executes transactions of any digital asset - even bitcoin - in milliseconds for near zero fees. Q: You guys are building among other things an Interoperability Network, can you explain a bit how this works and what the advantages are compare to the existing networks? Ian Friend: Ok so the interoperability network is a innovation from an older design, essentially it uses proxy tokens that can represent any digital asset. And because it runs on a DAG instead of a blockchain, transactions can be executed instantly for almost no fees. Q: What is the ferrum token utility in the ecosystem? Where it will be used and why the demand for the token should increase? Ian Friend: FRM is the gas of the network. You need to spend it to run transactions. The unique thing is that everytime a token is spent, it is burned. Our African users alone will account for thousands of daily token burns on day 1 of main net launch. The token should increase as we acquire more users for our products. The next product we will launch is called UniFyre Wallet. This will be available worldwide and coming to an app store near you. Q: What are the advantages of DAG that you used for Ferrum Network? Why did you choose DAG instead of blockchains? Ian Friend: We chose DAG instead of a blockcahin because they are inherently faster and cheaper than blockchains because there are no miners confirming blocks. Each transaction confirms another transaction. This is more suitable for high-speed and low cost transactions like we need to run our financial products Q: What made you decide to start with the Kudi Exchange and why Africa? Ian Friend: Africa is a huge market with billions of people and the existing banking and financial systems are lacking in many ways. They are also open to blockchain technology. Nigeria is the 7th biggest market in the world for BTC trading. Q: Is there any rewards for staking FRM TOKEN in the future? Ian Friend: Yes so there is pseudo staking now thru social mining. community.ferrum.network There will be staking in the UniFyre Wallet and staking once the main net is released in 2020. But for now you can earn thru social mining which allows you to earn FRM based on teh amount you hold plus the value you provide to the ecosystem in the form of tweets, articles, videos, etc. Q: Till now whether they conducted any TPS for their blockchain because we need to have enough security for the transactions which most of the people will show much interest in security blockchain. Through POS layer whether we can hold the coin in order to increase the staking rewards? Ian Friend: Ferrum Network can do thousands of transactions per ssecond and each transaction clears almost instantly. Here is a demo of a BTC transaction on our test net which execute in milliseconds Q: What is your go-to-market strategy? Ian Friend: Depends on the product you are talking about but for Kudi Exchange we are focused on bitcoin traders in Nigeria and also signing up merchants to our point of sale system that is built into the app. Q: What prospects of Ferrum are you most excited about? Ian Friend: UniFyre Wallet, Infinity DEX and laucnhing fiat gateways in parts of the world that really need crypto to help improve their lives. Q: What is your monetary policy? Ian Friend: We are a lean start up. We built Kudi Exchange on less than $100,000. We are very frugal and never waste money. Q: How much fund raised until now, have you reached the softcap? will you do an IEO in the future? Ian Friend: We just did an ICO. Total raised in all rounds was $1.12 million. The last round was $300,000 and we raised it in just a few minutes. Q: What technology stands behind Ferrum Network and why it’s better than the existing one? Ian Friend: So fundamentally it is a DAG based interoperability network which uses decentralied proxy tokens to achieve instant transactions of any digital asset without holding anyones private keys. Q: Currently, there is no public Github repository for the project, do you intend in showcasing the code at some point? Ian Friend: We will be showing more public repositories as we continue. https://github.com/ferrumnet Q: What's your plan after listing on Bitmax? Ian Friend: Binance DEX application was made last week, we are just waiting on the validators to vote. We are in talks with many other exchanges just looking for the right one to list on next. Q: What is the Unifire wallet? and when the Unifire wallet lauch? Ian Friend:https://unifyre.io/ is a non-custodial wallet with many unique features like the ability to recover your assets if you lose your phone, and risk free OTC trading and staking any token. Version 0.1 will be released in the next few months. Later versions will have all the features once main net is live. Q: What are Ferrum weaknesses? Ian Friend: Because of our low raise we dont have a big marketing budget or a budget to spend millions to list on exchanges. We need to work hard and be creative. But it has worked for us so far considering we listed on BItMax 5 days after the ICO. We also need to hire more engineers. If anyone here is a developer, we are hiring! Q: It's believed that staking on exchanges is a hot trend. Do you have the plan to do staking on Kudi Exchange? Ian Friend: Not on Kudi but we will have staking of FRM on UniFyre with the push of a button. Once main net is out UniFyre will enable the staking of any token even those that do not use smart contracts like BEP-2 tokens! Q: What is the biggest problem that Ferrum team has faced? and how has your team solved it? Ian Friend: Many challenges but one big one was the trend in crypto to raise money and list on an exhange before any product was built or there were users. We raised only after we built Kudi Exchange. I hope this trend continues and people do not fall for "vaporware" projetcs anymore The other big one is providing a banking app to the unbanked in Africa. With Kudi you can send real money using What's App, and access US Dollar stable coins from the same app. This had never been done before Kudi. Q: Can you share more details about the relationship between Ferrum and Gemini? What's the benefit for user under the partnership? Ian Friend: Sure so we partnered with Gemini to become the only app in West Afica offering a US Dollar backed stable coin. This means our Nigerian users can hedge out of volatile bitcoin, and also hedge out of their own fiat currency, which has lost 50% of its value since 2013. We are now looking to partner with other stable coin providers to offer alternatives to GUSD. Q: What is your inflation and deflation in Tokenomics? Ian Friend: All investor tokens are unlocked after 3 months so after that you dont have to worry about "dumping". The rest are locked up over the course of years and only slowly released. One unique thing we are doing is called the Traction Based Reserve wher tokens are unlcoked only based on the amount of burned tokens. Q: I heard a lot people said: DEX is the future so Centralized exchange will dead. so why Ferrum don't develop DEX only? Ian Friend: I agree in the long term DEXes are the future. But we will still need CEXs as fiat onramps/offramps. These fiat gateways are stil regulated by the financial rules, and therefore cannot be fully decentralized. At Ferrum, we have fiat gateways to buy crypto with fiat, but then you enter into a decentralized non-custodial ecosystem which has inherent benefits in terms of costs, privacy, speeds, and global reach. Ian Friend: Thank you all for attending! Please join our channel for all things Ferrum: https://t.me/ferrum_network https://www.facebook.com/groups/Coin98.Net/about/
Hello! My name is Slava Mikhalkin, I am a Project Owner of Crowdsale platform at Platinum, the company that knows how to start any ICO or STO in 2019. If you want to avoid headaches with launching process, we can help you with ICO and STO advertising and promotion. See the full list of our services: Platinum.fund I am also happy to be a part of the UBAI, the first educational institution providing the most effective online education on blockchain! We can teach you how to do ICO/STO in 2019. Today I want to tell you how to sell and transfer cryptocurrencies. Major Exchanges In finance, an exchange is a forum or platform for trading commodities, derivatives, securities or other financial instruments. The principle concern of an exchange is to allow trading between parties to take place in a fair and legally compliant manner, as well as to ensure that pricing information for any instrument traded on the exchange is reliable and coherently delivered to exchange participants. In the cryptocurrency space exchanges are online platforms that allow users to trade cryptocurrencies or digital currencies for fiat money or other cryptocurrencies. They can be centralized exchanges such a Binance, or decentralized exchanges such as IDEX. Most cryptocurrency exchanges allow users to trade different crypto assets with BTC or ETH after having already exchanged fiat currency for one of those cryptocurrencies. Coinbase and Kraken are the main avenue for fiat money to enter into the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Function and History Crypto exchanges can be market-makers that take bid/ask spreads as a commission on the transaction for facilitating the trade, or more often charge a small percentage fee for operating the forum in which the trade was made. Most crypto exchanges operate outside of Western countries, enabling them to avoid stringent financial regulations and the potential for costly and lengthy legal proceedings. These entities will often maintain bank accounts in multiple jurisdictions, allowing the exchange to accept fiat currency and process transactions from customers all over the globe. The concept of a digital asset exchange has been around since the late 2000s and the following initial attempts at running digital asset exchanges foreshadows the trouble involved in attempting to disrupt the operation of the fiat currency baking system. The trading of digital or electronic assets predate Bitcoin’s creation by several years, with the first electronic trading entities running afoul of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) in late 2004. Companies such as Goldex, SydneyGoldSales, and Ozzigold, shut down voluntarily after ASIC found that they were operating without an Australian Financial Services License. E-Gold, which exchanged fiat USD for grams of precious metals in digital form, was possibly the first digital currency exchange as we know it, allowing users to make instant transfers to the accounts of other E-Gold members. At its peak in 2006 E-Gold processed $2 billion worth of transactions and boasted a user base of over 5 million people. Popular Exchanges Here we will give a brief overview of the features and operational history of the more popular and higher volume exchanges because these are the platforms to which newer traders will be exposed. These exchanges are recommended to use because they are the industry standard and they inspire the most confidence. Bitfinex Owned and operated by iFinex Inc, the cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex was the largest Bitcoin exchange on the planet until late 2017. Headquartered in Hong Kong and based in the US Virgin Island, Bitfinex was one of the first exchanges to offer leveraged trading (“Margin trading allows a trader to open a position with leverage. For example — we opened a margin position with 2X leverage. Our base assets had increased by 10%. Our position yielded 20% because of the 2X leverage. Standard trades are traded with leverage of 1:1”) and also pioneered the use of the somewhat controversial, so-called “stable coin” Tether (USDT). Binance Binance is an international multi-language cryptocurrency exchange that rose from the mid-rank of cryptocurrency exchanges to become the market dominating behemoth we see today. At the height of the late 2017/early 2018 bull run, Binance was adding around 2 million new users per week! The exchange had to temporarily disallow new registrations because its servers simply could not keep up with that volume of business. After the temporary ban on new users was lifted the exchange added 240,000 new accounts within two hours. Have you ever thought whats the role of the cypto exchanges? The answer is simple! There are several different types of exchanges that cater to different needs within the ecosystem, but their functions can be described by one or more of the following: To allow users to convert fiat currency into cryptocurrency. To trade BTC or ETH for alt coins. To facilitate the setting of prices for all crypto assets through an auction market mechanism. Simply put, you can either mine cryptocurrencies or purchase them, and seeing as the mining process requires the purchase of expensive mining equipment, Cryptocurrency exchanges can be loosely grouped into one of the 3 following exchange types, each with a slightly different role or combination of roles. Have you ever thought about what are the types of Crypto exchanges?
Traditional Cryptocurrency Exchange: These are the type that most closely mimic traditional stock exchanges where buyers and sellers trade at the current market price of whichever asset they want, with the exchange acting as the intermediary and charging a small fee for facilitating the trade. Kraken and GDAX are examples of this kind of cryptocurrency exchange. Fully peer-to-peer exchanges that operate without a middleman include EtherDelta, and IDEX, which are also examples of decentralized exchanges.
Cryptocurrency Brokers: These are website or app based exchanges that act like a Travelex or other bureau-de-change. They allow customers to buy or sell crypto assets at a price set by the broker (usually market price plus a small premium). Coinbase is an example of this kind of exchange.
Direct Trading Platform: These platforms offer direct peer-to-peer trading between buyers and sellers, but don’t use an exchange platform in doing so. These types of exchanges do not use a set market rate; rather, sellers set their own rates. This is a highly risky form of trading, from which new users should shy away.
To understand how an exchange functions we need only look as far as a traditional stock exchange. Most all the features of a cryptocurrency exchange are analogous to features of trading on a traditional stock exchange. In the simplest terms, the exchanges fulfil their role as the main marketplace for crypto assets of all kinds by catering to buyers or sellers. These are some definitions for the basic functions and features to know: Market Orders: Orders that are executed instantly at the current market price. Limit Order: This is an order that will only be executed if and when the price has risen to or dropped to that price specified by the trader and is also within the specified period of time. Transaction fees: Exchanges will charge transactions fees, usually levied on both the buyer and the seller, but sometimes only the seller is charged a fee. Fees vary on different exchanges though the norm is usually below 0.75%. Transfer charges: The exchange is in effect acting as a sort of escrow agent, to ensure there is no foul play, so it might also charge a small fee when you want to withdraw cryptocurrency to your own wallet. Regulatory Environment and Evolution Cryptocurrency has come a long way since the closing down of the Silk Road darknet market. The idea of crypto currency being primarily for criminals, has largely been seen as totally inaccurate and outdated. In this section we focus on the developing regulations surrounding the cryptocurrency asset class by region, and we also look at what the future may hold. The United States of America A coherent uniform approach at Federal or State level has yet to be implemented in the United States. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network published guidelines as early as 2013 suggesting that BTC and other cryptos may fall under the label of “money transmitters” and thus would be required to take part in the same Anti-money Laundering (AML) and Know your Client (KYC) procedures as other money service businesses. At the state level, Texas applies its existing finance laws. And New York has instituted an entirely new licensing system. The European Union The EU’s approach to cryptocurrency has generally been far more accommodating overall than the United States, partly due to the adaptable nature of pre-existing laws governing electronic money that predated the creation of Bitcoin. As with the USA, the EU’s main fear is money laundering and criminality. The European Central Bank (ECB) categorized BTC as a “convertible decentralized currency” and advised all central banks in the EU to refrain from trading any cryptocurrencies until the proper regulatory framework was put in place. A task force was then set up by the European Parliament in order to prevent and investigate any potential money laundering that was making use of the new technology. Likely future regulations for cryptocurrency traders within the European Union and North America will probably consist of the following proposals: The initiation of full KYC procedures so that users cannot remain fully anonymous, in order to prevent tax evasion and curtail money laundering. Caps on payments that can be made in cryptocurrency, similar to caps on traditional cash transactions. A set of rules governing tax obligations regarding cryptocurrencies Regulation by the ECB of any companies that offer exchanges between cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies It is less likely for other countries to follow the Chinese approach and completely ban certain aspects of cryptocurrency trading. It is widely considered more progressive and wiser to allow the technology to grow within a balanced accommodative regulatory framework that takes all interests and factors into consideration. It is probable that the most severe form of regulation will be the formation of new governmental bodies specifically to form laws and exercise regulatory control over the cryptocurrency space. But perhaps that is easier said than done. It may, in certain cases, be incredibly difficult to implement particular regulations due to the anonymous and decentralized nature of crypto. Behavior of Cryptocurrency Investors by Demographic Due to the fact that cryptocurrency has its roots firmly planted in the cryptography community, the vast majority of early adopters are representative of that group. In this section we cover the basic structure of the cryptocurrency market cycle and the makeup of the community at large, as well as the reasons behind different trading decisions. The Cryptocurrency Market Cycle Bitcoin leads the bull rally. FOMO (Fear of missing out) occurs, the price surge is a constant topic of mainstream news, business programs cover the story, and social media is abuzz with cryptocurrency chatter. Bitcoin reaches new All Timehigh (ATH) Market euphoria is fueled with even more hype and the cycle is in full force. There is a constant stream of news articles and commentary on the meteoric, seemingly unstoppable rise of Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s price “stabilizes”, In the 2017 bull run this was at or around $14,000. A number of solid, large market cap altcoins rise along with Bitcoin; ETH & LTC leading the altcoins at this time. FOMO comes into play, as the new ATH in market cap is reached by pumping of a huge number of alt coins. Top altcoins “somewhat” stabilize, after reaching new all-time highs. The frenzy continues with crypto success stories, notable figures and famous people in the news. A majority of lesser known cryptocurrencies follow along on the upward momentum. Newcomers are drawn deeper into crypto and sign up for exchanges other than the main entry points like Coinbase and Kraken. In 2017 this saw Binance inundated with new registrations. Some of the cheapest coins are subject to massive pumping, such as Tron TRX which saw a rise in market cap from $150 million at the start of December 2017 to a peak of $16 billion! At this stage, even dead coins or known scams will get pumped. The price of the majority of cryptocurrencies stabilize, and some begin to retract. When the hype is subsiding after a huge crypto bull run, it is a massive sell signal. Traditional investors will begin to give interviews about how people need to be careful putting money into such a highly volatile asset class. Massive violent correction begins and the market starts to collapse. BTC begins to fall consistently on a daily basis, wiping out the insane gains of many medium to small cap cryptos with it. Panic selling sweeps through the market. Depression sets in, both in the markets, and in the minds of individual investors who failed to take profits, or heed the signs of imminent collapse. The price stagnation can last for months, or even years. The Influence of Age upon Trading Did you know? Cryptocurrencies have been called “stocks for millennials” According to a survey conducted by the Global Blockchain Business Council, only 5% of the American public own any bitcoin, but of those that do, an overwhelming majority of 71% are men, 58% of them are between the ages of 18 and 35, and over half of them are minorities. The same survey gauged public attitude toward the high risk/high return nature of cryptocurrency, in comparison to more secure guaranteed small percentage gains offered by government bonds or stocks, and found that 30% would rather invest $1,000 in crypto. Over 42% of millennials were aware of cryptocurrencies as opposed to only 15% of those ages 65 and over. In George M. Korniotis and Alok Kumar’s study into the effects of aging on portfolio management and the quality of decisions made by older investors, they found “that older and experienced investors are more likely to follow “rules of thumb” that reflect greater investment knowledge. However, older investors are less effective in applying their investment knowledge and exhibit worse investment skill, especially if they are less educated and earn lower income.” Geographic Influence upon Trading One of the main drivers of the apparent seasonal ebb and flow of cryptocurrency prices is the tax situation in the various territories that have the highest concentrations of cryptocurrency holders. Every year we see an overall market pull back beginning in mid to late January, with a recovery beginning usually after April. This is because “Tax Season” is roughly the same across Europe and the United States, with the deadline for Income tax returns being April 15th in the United States, and the tax year officially ending the UK on the 6th of April. All capital gains must be declared before the window closes or an American trader will face the powerful and long arm of the IRS with the consequent legal proceedings and possible jail time. Capital gains taxes around the world vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction but there are often incentives for cryptocurrency holders to refrain from trading for over a year to qualify their profits as long term gain when they finally sell. In the US and Australia, for example, capital gains are reduced if you bought cryptocurrency for investment purposes and held it for over a year. In Germany if crypto assets are held for over a year then the gains derived from their sale are not taxed. Advantages like this apply to individual tax returns, on a case by case basis, and it is up to the investor to keep up to date with the tax codes of the territory in which they reside. 2013 Bull run vs 2017 Bull run price Analysis In late 2016 cryptocurrency traders were faced with the task of distinguishing between the beginnings of a genuine bull run and what might colorfully be called a “dead cat bounce” (in traditional market terminology). Stagnation had gripped the market since the pull-back of early 2014. The meteoric rise of Bitcoin’s price in 2013 peaked with a price of $1,100 in November 2013, after a year of fantastic news on the adoption front with both Microsoft and PayPal offering BTC payment options. It is easy to look at a line going up on a chart and speak after the fact, but at the time, it is exceeding difficult to say whether the cat is actually climbing up the wall, or just bouncing off the ground. Here, we will discuss the factors that gave savvy investors clues as to why the 2017 bull run was going to outstrip the 2013 rally. Hopefully this will help give insight into how to differentiate between the signs of a small price increase and the start of a full scale bull run. Most importantly, Volume was far higher in 2017. As we can see in the graphic below, the 2017 volume far exceeds the volume of BTC trading during the 2013 price increase. The stranglehold MtGox held on trading made a huge bull run very difficult and unlikely. Fraud & Immoral Activity in the Private Market Ponzi Schemes Cryptocurrency Ponzi schemes will be covered in greater detail in Lesson 7, but we need to get a quick overview of the main features of Ponzi schemes and how to spot them at this point in our discussion. Here are some key indicators of a Ponzi scheme, both in cryptocurrencies and traditional investments: A guaranteed promise of high returns with little risk. Consistentflow of returns regardless of market conditions. Investments that have not been registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Investment strategies that are a secret, or described as too complex. Clients not allowed to view official paperwork for their investment. Clients have difficulties trying to get their money back. The initial members of the scheme, most likely unbeknownst to the later investors, are paid their “dividends” or “profits” with new investor cash. The most famous modern-day example of a Ponzi scheme in the traditional world, is Bernie Madoff’s $100 billion fraudulent enterprise, officially titled Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC. And in the crypto world, BitConnect is the most infamous case of an entirely fraudulent project which boasted a market cap of $2 billion at its peak. What are the Exchange Hacks? The history of cryptocurrency is littered with examples of hacked exchanges, some of them so severe that the operation had to be wound up forever. As we have already discussed, incredibly tech savvy and intelligent computer hackers led by Alexander Vinnik stole 850000 BTC from the MtGox exchange over a period from 2012–2014 resulting in the collapse of the exchange and a near-crippling hammer blow to the emerging asset class that is still being felt to this day. The BitGrail exchange suffered a similar style of attack in late 2017 and early 2018, in which Nano (XRB) was stolen that was at one point was worth almost $195 million. Even Bitfinex, one of the most famous and prestigious exchanges, has suffered a hack in 2016 where $72 million worth of BTC was stolen directly from customer accounts. Hardware Wallet Scam Case Study In late 2017, an unfortunate character on Reddit, going by the name of “moody rocket” relayed his story of an intricate scam in which his newly acquired hardware wallet was compromised, and his $34,000 life savings were stolen. He bought a second hand Nano ledger into which the scammers own recover seed had already been inserted. He began using the ledger without knowing that the default seed being used was not a randomly assigned seed. After a few weeks the scammer struck, and withdrew all the poor HODLer’s XRP, Dash and Litecoin into their own wallet (likely through a few intermediary wallets to lessen the very slim chances of being identified). Hardware Wallet Scam Case Study Social Media Fraud Many gullible and hapless twitter users have fallen victim to the recent phenomenon of scammers using a combination of convincing fake celebrity twitter profiles and numerous amounts of bots to swindle them of ETH or BTC. The scammers would set up a profile with a near identical handle to a famous figure in the tech sphere, such as Vitalik Buterin or Elon Musk. And then in the tweet, immediately following a genuine message, follow up with a variation of “Bonus give away for the next 100 lucky people, send me 0.1 ETH and I will send you 1 ETH back”, followed by the scammers ether wallet address. The next 20 or so responses will be so-called sockpuppet bots, thanking the fake account for their generosity. Thus, the pot is baited and the scammers can expect to receive potentially hundreds of donations of 0.1 Ether into their wallet. Many twitter users with a large follower base such as Vitalik Buterin have taken to adding “Not giving away ETH” to their username to save careless users from being scammed. Market Manipulation It also must be recognized that market manipulation is taking place in cryptocurrency. For those with the financial means i.e. whales, there are many ways in which to control the market in a totally immoral and underhanded way for your own profit. It is especially easy to manipulate cryptos that have a very low trading volume. The manipulator places large buy orders or sell walls to discourage price action in one way or the other. Insider trading is also a significant problem in cryptocurrency, as we saw with the example of blatant insider trading when Bitcoin Cash was listed on Coinbase. Examples of ICO Fraudulent Company Behavior In the past 2 years an astronomical amount of money has been lost in fraudulent Initial Coin Offerings. The utmost care and attention must be employed before you invest. We will cover this area in greater detail with a whole lesson devoted to the topic. However, at this point, it is useful to look at the main instances of ICO fraud. Among recent instances of fraudulent ICOs resulting in exit scams, 2 of the most infamous are the Benebit and PlexCoin ICOs which raised $4 million for the former and $15 million for the latter. Perhaps the most brazen and damaging ICO scam of all time was the Vietnamese Pincoin ICO operation, where $660million was raised from 32,000 investors before the scammer disappeared with the funds. In case of smaller ICO “exit scamming” there is usually zero chance of the scammers being found. Investors must just take the hit. We will cover these as well as others in Lesson 7 “Scam Projects”. Signposts of Fraudulent Actors The following factors are considered red flags when investigating a certain project or ICO, and all of them should be considered when deciding whether or not you want to invest. Whitepaper is a buzzword Salad: If the whitepaper is nothing more than a collection of buzzwords with little clarity of purpose and not much discussion of the tech involved, it is overwhelmingly likely you are reading a scam whitepaper. Signposts of Fraudulent Actors §2 No Code Repository: With the vast majority of cryptocurrency projects employing open source code, your due diligence investigation should start at GitHub or Sourceforge. If the project has no entries, or nothing but cloned code, you should avoid it at all costs. Anonymous Team: If the team members are hard to find, or if you see they are exaggerating or lying about their experience, you should steer clear. And do not forget, in addition to taking proper precautions when investing in ICOs, you must always make sure that you are visiting authentic web pages, especially for web wallets. If, for example, you are on a spoof MyEtherWallet web page you could divulge your private key without realizing it and have your entire portfolio of Ether and ERC-20 tokens cleaned out. Methods to Avoid falling Victim Avoiding scammers and the traps they set for you is all about asking yourself the right questions, starting with: Is there a need for a Blockchain solution for the particular problem that a particular ICO is attempting to solve? The existing solution may be less costly, less time consuming, and more effective than the proposals of a team attempting to fill up their soft cap in an ICO. The following quote from Mihai Ivascu, the CEO of Modex, should be kept in mind every time you are grading an ICO’s chances of success: “I’m pretty sure that 95% of ICOswill not last, and many will go bankrupt. ….. not everything needs to be decentralized and put on an open source ledger.” Methods to Avoid falling Victim §2 Do I Trust These People with My Money, or Not? If you continue to feel uneasy about investing in the project, more due diligence is needed. The developers must be qualified and competent enough to complete the objectives that they have set out in the whitepaper. Is this too good to be true? All victims of the well-known social media scams using fake profiles of Vitalik Buterin, or Bitconnect investors for that matter, should have asked themselves this simple question, and their investment would have been saved. In the case of Bitconnect, huge guaranteed gains proportional to the amount of people you can get to sign up was a blatant pyramid scheme, obviously too good to be true. The same goes for Fake Vitalik’s offer of 1 ether in exchange for 0.1 ETH. Selling Cryptocurrencies, Several reasons for selling with the appropriate actions to take: If you are selling to buy into an ICO, or maybe believe Ether is a safer currency to hold for a certain period of time, it is likely you will want to make use of the Ether pair and receive Ether in return. Obviously if the ICO is on the NEO or WANchain blockchain for example, you will use the appropriate pair. -Trading to buy into another promising project that is listing on the exchange on which you are selling (or you think the exchange will experience a large amount of volume and become a larger exchange), you may want to trade your cryptocurrency for that exchange token. -If you believe that BTC stands a good chance of experiencing a bull run then using the BTC trading pair is the suitable choice. -If you believe that the market is about to experience a correction but you do not want to take your gains out of the market yet, selling for Tether or “tethering up” is the best play. This allows you to keep your locked-in profits on the exchange, unaffected by the price movements in the cryptocurrency markets,so that you can buy back in at the most profitable moment. -If you wish to “cash out” i.e. sell your cryptocurrency for fiat currency and have those funds in your bank account, the best pair to use is ETH or BTC because you will likely have to transfer to an exchange like Kraken or Coinbase to convert them into fiat. If the exchange offers Litecoin or Bitcoin Cash pairs it could be a good idea to use these for their fast transaction time and low fees. Selling Cryptocurrencies Knowing when and how to sell, as well as strategies to inflate the value of your trade before sale, are important skills as a trader of any product or financial instrument. If you are satisfied that the sale itself of the particular amount of a token or coin you are trading away is the right one, then you must decide at what price you are going to sell. Exchanges exercise their own discretion as to which trading “pairs” they will offer, but the most common ones are BTC, ETH, BNB for Binance, BIX for Bibox etc., and sometimes Tether (USDT) or NEO. As a trader, you decide which particular cryptocurrency to exchange depending on your reason for making that specific trade at that time. Methods of Sale Market sell/Limit sell on exchange: A limit sell is an order placed on an exchange to sell as soon as (also specifically only if and when) the price you specified has been hit within the time limit you select. A market order executes the sale immediately at the best possible price offered by the market at that exact time. OTC (or Over the Counter) selling refers to sale of securities or cryptocurrencies in any method without using an exchange to intermediate the trade and set the price. The most common way of conducting sales in this manner is through LocalBitcoins.com. This method of cryptocurrency selling is far riskier than using an exchange, for obvious reasons. The influence and value of your Trade There are a number of strategies you can use to appreciate the value of your trade and thus increase the Bitcoin or Ether value of your portfolio. It is important to disassociate yourself from the dollar value of your portfolio early on in your cryptocurrency trading career simply because the crypto market is so volatile you will end up pulling your hair out in frustration following the real dollar money value of your holdings. Once your funds have been converted into BTC and ETH they are completely in the crypto sphere. (Some crypto investors find it more appropriate to monitor the value of their portfolio in satoshi or gwei.) Certainly not limited to, but especially good for beginners, the most reliable way to increase your trading profits, and thus the overall value and health of your portfolio, is to buy into promising projects, hold them for 6 months to a year, and then reevaluate. This is called Long term holding and is the tactic that served Bitcoin HODLers quite well, from 2013 to the present day. Obviously, if something comes to light about the project that indicates a lengthy set back is likely, it is often better to cut your losses and sell. You are better off starting over and researching other projects. Also, you should set initial Price Points at which you first take out your original investment, and then later, at which you take out all your profits and exit the project. That should be after you believe the potential for growth has been exhausted for that particular project. Another method of increasing the value of your trades is ICO flipping. This is the exact opposite of long term holding. This is a technique in which you aim for fast profits taking advantage of initial enthusiasm in the market that may double or triple the value of ICO projects when they first come to market. This method requires some experience using smaller exchanges like IDEX, on which project tokens can be bought and sold before listing on mainstream exchanges. “Tethering up” means to exchange tokens or coins for the USDT stable coin, the value of which is tethered to the US Dollar. If you learn, or know how to use, technical analysis, it is possible to predict when a market retreatment is likely by looking at the price movements of BTC. If you decide a market pull back is likely, you can tether up and maintain the dollar value of your portfolio in tether while other tokens and coins decrease in value. The you wait for an opportune moment to reenter the market. Market Behavior in Different Time Periods The main descriptors used for overall market sentiment are “Bull Market” and “Bear Market”. The former describes a market where people are buying on optimism. The latter describes a market where people are selling on pessimism. Fun (or maybe not) fact: The California grizzly bear was brought to extinction by the love of bear baiting as a sport in the mid 1800s. Bears were highly sought after for their intrinsic fighting qualities, and were forced into fighting bulls as Sunday morning entertainment for Californians. What has this got to do with trading and financial markets? The downward swipe of the bear’s paws gives a “Bear market” its name and the upward thrust of a Bull’s horns give the “Bull Market” its name. Most unfortunately for traders, the bear won over 80% of the bouts. During a Bull market, optimism can sometimes grow to be seemingly boundless, volume is rising, and prices are ascending. It can be a good idea to sell or rebalance your portfolio at such a time, especially if you have a particularly large position in one holding or another. This is especially applicable if you need to sell a large amount of a relatively low-volume holding, because you can then do so without dragging the price down by the large size of your own sell order. Learn more on common behavioral patterns observed so far in the cryptocurrency space for different coins and ICO tokens. Follow the link: UBAI.co If you want to know how do security tokens work, and become a professional in crypto world contact me via Facebook to get all the details: Facebook
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Litecoin: Dead or Developed? GitHub Exposed! Can You Rely on GitHub Data??
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